Republic of Kyrgyzstan: Review of Quarterly Projection Model of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic

This technical assistance report summarizes the findings and recommendations from two missions conducted by the International Monetary Fund to the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR) in 2023. The missions aimed to assess and enhance the forecasting performance of the central bank’s core macroeconomic projection tool, which supports its inflation-targeting monetary policy framework. The tool was found to be broadly adequate, with recalibration yielding marginal improvements in forecast accuracy. A new forecast quality monitoring tool was developed and integrated into the forecasting system to track forecast errors and provide early warnings. Key recommendations include investment in continuous human resource development and in the retention of expertise.