Republic of Equatorial Guinea: Staff Report for the 2025 Article IV Consultation and First and Second Reviews Under the Staff-Monitored Program-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Equatorial Guinea

This paper presents Republic of Equatorial Guinea’s 2025 Article IV Consultation and First and Second Reviews under the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP). Equatorial Guinea registered a mild economic recovery in 2024, but the economy is projected to grow weakly and a drain on regional reserves is expected to continue in the medium term as hydrocarbon production declines. The banking sector is showing clear signs of improvement. Performance under the program has been strong, with significant reforms implemented and a substantial fiscal adjustment that met the SMP conditionality. However, contrary to longstanding commitments, the authorities decided not to publish asset declarations of public officials. The program extension will provide the authorities with an opportunity to complete an alternative governance reform measure aimed at strengthening transparency in the extractive sector. The economy is projected to grow weakly in the medium term as hydrocarbon production declines. The authorities planned fiscal adjustment will keep public debt below 50 percent of gross domestic product and restore external balance in the medium term. The main downside risks to the outlook stem from lower output or prices in the hydrocarbon sector, along with slower implementation of key reforms.