Republic of Azerbaijan: Technical Assistance Report-Enhancing Economic Analysis and Forecasting Capacity of the Ministry of Economy
Republic of Azerbaijan: Technical Assistance Report-Enhancing Economic Analysis and Forecasting Capacity of the Ministry of Economy
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Volume/Issue:
Volume 2026
Issue 040
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Inflation , Economics- Macroeconomics , Industries - Energy , Azerbaijan , Macroeconomic frameworks , Comprehensive adaptive expectations model , Oil , Oil sector
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Summary
This technical assistance project, delivered by CCAMTAC and the IMF’s Institute for Capacity Development, supported Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Economy in strengthening macroeconomic analysis and forecasting. The initiative developed and operationalized the Comprehensive Adaptive Expectations Model (CAEM), which was integrated into the Ministry’s forecasting system and has been in use since the Budget 2026. Through targeted training, enhanced analytical frameworks, and improved data infrastructure, the project advanced institutional capacity for credible policy analysis and scenario planning. The CAEM now supports robust, internally consistent medium-term forecasts, supporting Azerbaijan’s economic framework and policy formulation.
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