Republic of Armenia: First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause-Press Release; and Staff Report

Armenia’s economic performance surpassed expectations in 2025. Growth was higher than projected, supported by robust domestic demand. The fiscal primary balance exceeded the program target by a comfortable margin and headline inflation hovered around the central bank’s target before picking up early in 2026. The impact from the war in the Middle East is mostly contained, although trade disruptions and higher oil prices are expected to exert some pressure on inflation and the economy. Economic relations with Türkiye and Azerbaijan are showing signs of improvement, even if the full implementation of the peace agreement with Azerbaijan initialed in August 2025 may take time. A general election is scheduled for June 7, 2026.