Regional Economic Outlook, Sub Saharan Africa, April 2026: Hard-Won Gains Under Pressure

After a strong 2025 with regional growth estimated at 4.5, Sub-Saharan Africa entered 2026 reaping the benefits of hard-won stabilization gains. But the war in the Middle East has clouded the outlook. The shock has caused a rapid increase in key commodity prices, particularly in fuel and fertilizer. Poverty, food insecurity, and other social indicators, already weakened by the pandemic, face renewed headwinds from declining foreign aid and rising food prices. Regional growth is expected to decline to 4.3 percent in 2026 with significant heterogeneity across countries. Downside risks are significant amid high global uncertainty and regional macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Policy must focus on addressing the shock in the near-term and building resilience over the medium-term. The main chapter is accompanied by two analytical chapters. The first examines the macroeconomic implications of cuts in official development assistance. The second focuses on priority structural reforms to raise productivity and support job-rich private sector-led growth.