Guinea-Bissau: Eleventh Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria and Financing Assurances Review

The political and social situation remains relatively calm. The transitional government is preparing for the next elections scheduled for December 6, 2026. Following a strong performance in 2025, growth is projected to moderate in 2026 on account of high fuel prices, and the economic outlook is facing significant downside risks. The main source of risks is a continued elevated level of fuel prices, which would slow down growth, push up inflation, and result in revenue shortfalls from the likely contraction of fuel imports and shipping disruptions for cashew exports and may require additional spending for minimum operating costs of energy sector entities. Another source of risks includes possible shocks to cashew production, which is experiencing delays in several regions.