Guinea-Bissau: 2025 Article IV Consultation, Eighth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility, Requests for Rephasing of Access, Extension of the Arrangement, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and

Since the last Article IV of June 2022, economic growth has been resilient and the authorities have made significant progress in infrastructure development. The economic outlook for 2025 is positive supported by high international prices of cashew nuts and strong public and private investments. However, risks are on the downside and the country remains at high risk of debt distress. The presidential and legislative elections are scheduled for November 23, 2025, and the social situation remains relatively calm. Direct effects to Guinea Bissau from the elevated global trade uncertainty are relatively low, as prices of cashew nuts, which account for over 90 percent of exports, have so far not been adversely affected by recent global events and the country is benefiting from lower global fuel prices.