Forging Strength: Exploring the Dynamic Interplay between Institutions and State Capacity

This paper examines the distinct and interactive effects of state capacity (SC) and institutional quality (IN) on real GDP per capita growth across up to 130 countries over the period 1970–2022. Using a novel identification strategy that isolates large, exogenous governance shocks via both residual-based and percentile-based approaches, we estimate dynamic responses using local projections. We find that SC and IN shocks yield positive and persistent growth effects, particularly in emerging and developing economies, where governance gaps are most binding. Institutional reforms generate the strongest gains. In contrast, SC shocks show weaker effects on average, though they become highly effective when implemented alongside institutional improvements, highlighting a strong complementarity. Results are robust to alternative shock definitions and endogeneity concerns. A two-stage least squares (2SLS) approach using income-group-based democratization waves and natural disasters as instruments confirms the validity of our shocks, with IV estimates closely tracking the baseline, except for government effectiveness (GEE) shocks, where the IV point estimate is significantly larger. These findings suggest that endogeneity is not a major concern, and underscore that targeted institutional reforms, particularly when supported by capable state structures, can deliver substantial economic dividends.