Demand Projections for the Fund's Concessional Resources

Author: International Monetary Fund

Projections of demand for concessional loans under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) are subject to a high degree of uncertainty.

Volume/Issue: Volume 2011 Issue 019

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Exports and Imports , Economics- Macroeconomics , Public Finance , PP , financial support , demand , lending , Fund , SDR , PRGT financing commitment , fund staff estimate , PRGT resource , PRGT-eligible country , PRGT-eligibility list , PRGT commitment , Public expenditure review , Personal income , Concessional external borrowing , Global

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Summary

Projections of demand for concessional loans under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) are subject to a high degree of uncertainty. The Fund’s financial support to low-income countries (LICs) is both cyclical and lumpy. Moreover, there are important structural changes underway that are likely to affect the frequency, nature, and size of Fund concessional lending. As a result, simple extrapolations from historical lending volumes are misleading. This paper reviews factors underlying historical lending trends and develops a methodology that can narrow down the range of possible longer-term demand scenarios.