Are Fund Staff Projections of Debt More Optimistic Under Program Contexts?
Are Fund Staff Projections of Debt More Optimistic Under Program Contexts?
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Volume/Issue:
Volume 2005
Issue 065
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Exports and Imports , Public Finance , PP , Fund , program , debt projection , program dummy , Fund-supported program , projection error , Fund exhibit , General government spending , Debt sustainability , Real exchange rates
Also of interest
Summary
This note examines whether projections made in the context of a Fund-supported program are systematically more optimistic than those done for surveillance cases. Of particular interest in this regard is the assessment of external debt sustainability, as this underlies the "capacity to repay the Fund" analysis. Accordingly, this note examines debt projections over the period 1990-2004, with data for transition countries beginning in 1995.
